SEIRD Model for Qatar COVID-19 Outbreak

A Case Study

  • Ryad Ghanam Virginia Commonwealth University in Qatar
  • Edward L. Boone Virginia Commonwealth University
  • Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam Qatar University
Keywords: SEIRD, Compartmental Model, Bayesian Statistics, Intervention Analysis, Modeling Technique

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time. A Bayesian Framework is utilized to perform both parameter estimation and predictions. This model uses interventions to quantify the impact of various government attempts to slow the spread of the virus. Predictions are also made to determine when the peak Active Infections will occur.

Author Biographies

Ryad Ghanam, Virginia Commonwealth University in Qatar

Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences at Virginia Commonwealth University in Qatar.

Edward L. Boone, Virginia Commonwealth University

Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University

Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam, Qatar University

Associate Professor of Statistics,

Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics

Published
2021-02-18
How to Cite
Ghanam, Ryad, Edward Boone, and Abdel-Salam Abdel-Salam. 2021. “SEIRD Model for Qatar COVID-19 Outbreak”. Letters in Biomathematics 8 (1), 19–28. https://lettersinbiomath.journals.publicknowledgeproject.org/index.php/lib/article/view/319.
Section
Research