Mathematical Modeling and Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia

Implications to Public Health Preparedness and Managing Outbreaks

  • Jorge H. Rojas
  • Marlio Paredes Universidad del Valle
  • Malay Banerjee Indian Institute of Technology
  • Olcay Akman Illinois State University
  • Anuj Mubayi Arizona State University
Keywords: coronavirus outbreak, dynamical model, epidemic burden, basic reproduction number, exponential initial rise in new cases


As COVID-19 continues to spread around the globe, it is critical to understand the true burden of a future outbreak in developing countries like Colombia where data may be limited. Here, we estimated the rate of the initial exponential growth of cases and the basic reproductive rate for the disease. We use models with different modeling assumptions to study the differences between five major Colombian cities and between selected Latin American countries. Using an ensemble modeling technique, we estimated that the reproduction number in Colombia varied from 1.10 in Cartagena to 1.75 in Medellin with Cali being 1.47. In Latin America, Ecuador has highest initial epidemic growth rate and Panama the lowest with Colombia in middle of the list. The choice of appropriate model and parameter estimates for a location provided different scenarios in outbreaks. This analysis provides a framework for the decision makers to be better prepared for an outbreak.

How to Cite
Humberto RojasJorge, Marlio Paredes, Malay Banerjee, Olcay Akman, and Anuj Mubayi. 2022. “Mathematical Modeling and Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia”. Letters in Biomathematics 9 (1), 41–56.

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