A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment

  • Luke Denholm University of Tasmania
  • Nicholas J. Beeton University of Tasmania
  • Lawrence K. Forbes University of Tasmania
  • Scott Carver University of Tasmania
Keywords: Ross River Virus, mosquitoes, kangaroos, frequency dependence, seasonal forcing, chaos

Abstract

Ross River Disease is a mosquito-borne viral condition that affects pockets of the Australian human population, and can be debilitating in some instances. The evidence is that the virus reservoirs in marsupials, such as kangaroos, and this may account for the unpredictable outbreaks of the disease in humans. Accordingly, we present here a new model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus (RRV) in populations of mosquitoes and kangaroos. We calculate steady-state populations for the sub-groups in each species and demonstrate that naturally-occurring oscillations in the populations (limit cycles) do not occur. When seasonal forcing of vector populations and kangaroo birth rates is taken into account, however, the model may predict multi-annual outbreaks and chaos, perhaps explaining the unpredictability of some RRV disease epidemics, particularly across southern Australia. Detailed results in this case are presented.

Published
2017-01-01
How to Cite
Denholm, Luke, Nicholas J. Beeton, Lawrence K. Forbes, and Scott Carver. 2017. “A Model for the Dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian Environment”. Letters in Biomathematics 4 (1), 187-206. https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2017.1359697.
Section
Research